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Nuclear, Missile and Space Warfare: Q & A

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#1
IbnAbdullah

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Salaam

This thread is for any questions that members may wish to ask about issues concerning ‘Nuclear, Missile and Space Warfare’ and any other relevant subject.


Could the Mods please pin it up.
'Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad' - Ancient Greek Proverb

#2
IbnAbdullah

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Salaam

There was talk relating to nuclear threshold in the ‘Pak-Afghanistan’ thread. It was suggested that Pakistan and India may use nuclear bombs to contaminate and lay-waste the food producing regions of each other, in case there is a nuclear exchange, to maximize the damage.

My understanding was that the fall-out from nuclear weapons is deadly to human life only for about 2-4 weeks {for the most elements, [Iodine-131 (?)]}, and after a period of couple of months at most (for majority of the area) farming can be done. So how can the strategy suggested be of much use?

Another thing is that one of the reasons was that Pakistan does not posses sufficient nuclear weapons to level the better part of India and thus would resort to the aforementioned strategy. I thought we had sufficient weapons to ensure that India does not get up anytime soon. Do we not have sufficient weapons to do that? If not yet, how much longer before we are able to achieve a MAD situation with India (assuming India has the capability to completely destroy us)?
'Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad' - Ancient Greek Proverb

#3
popalzai

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Salaam

There was talk relating to nuclear threshold in the ‘Pak-Afghanistan’ thread. It was suggested that Pakistan and India may use nuclear bombs to contaminate and lay-waste the food producing regions of each other, in case there is a nuclear exchange, to maximize the damage.

My understanding was that the fall-out from nuclear weapons is deadly to human life only for about 2-4 weeks {for the most elements, [Iodine-131 (?)]}, and after a period of couple of months at most (for majority of the area) farming can be done. So how can the strategy suggested be of much use?

Another thing is that one of the reasons was that Pakistan does not posses sufficient nuclear weapons to level the better part of India and thus would resort to the aforementioned strategy. I thought we had sufficient weapons to ensure that India does not get up anytime soon. Do we not have sufficient weapons to do that? If not yet, how much longer before we are able to achieve a MAD situation with India (assuming India has the capability to completely destroy us)?


I think we have achieved MAD otherwise Indians would have never toned down their language against Pakistan.

#4
Munir

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It is even more then MAD scenario. A report said that if war happens and it moves nuclear then the whole world will not survive...

There is no such thing as Islamic, Hindu, Buddhist, Christian, Jewish or Atheist science. It is the study the laws of God. Dr Abdus Salam.

 

Passive account.


#5
Rafi

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By 2019 Pakistan will have fully deployed thermo-nuclear strategic deterent, based upon a triad ie all three strategic force commands will have been fully formed and matured. The doctrine of use has been thoroughly been wargamed, so the boffins have already worked out what is required to remove the adversery from the face of the earth.

(I know that is a terrible thing to say. But these weapons aren't toys, but assets that will ensure that if the fatherland does not survive. Neither will its attacker.)

Also we are very close to realising the space dream RSSS and PAKSAT-IR in effect our first spy satellite and communications platform, the latter will enable us to have thousands of secure telephone lins and data-uplink for the forces. Succesors to the first spy SAT will hopefully have space based SAR capability which is part of the JV signed with our Chinese friends regarding development of AWACS and other radars.

Also the SLV is in a very advanced stage, with first launch on the horizon, but some international forces are putting huge pressure on the new government, giving it all sorts of carrots to indefinatly postpone this programme. (They are doing the same regarrding the reactor research and the developed of Navy Strategic Force Command). the reason being the implications for our missile programme and the by product of a mother of all force multipliers.

In conclusion let me say we are well on our we have all these developments,infrastructure at Khushab etc we just to ride out a similar wave as in the eighties and use this time as before. As long as our western neighbour is in turmoil we are relatively well placed to achieve this.
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#6
popalzai

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By 2019 Pakistan will have fully deployed thermo-nuclear strategic deterent, based upon a triad ie all three strategic force commands will have been fully formed and matured. The doctrine of use has been thoroughly been wargamed, so the boffins have already worked out what is required to remove the adversery from the face of the earth.

(I know that is a terrible thing to say. But these weapons aren't toys, but assets that will ensure that if the fatherland does not survive. Neither will its attacker.)

Also we are very close to realising the space dream RSSS and PAKSAT-IR in effect our first spy satellite and communications platform, the latter will enable us to have thousands of secure telephone lins and data-uplink for the forces. Succesors to the first spy SAT will hopefully have space based SAR capability which is part of the JV signed with our Chinese friends regarding development of AWACS and other radars.

Also the SLV is in a very advanced stage, with first launch on the horizon, but some international forces are putting huge pressure on the new government, giving it all sorts of carrots to indefinatly postpone this programme. (They are doing the same regarrding the reactor research and the developed of Navy Strategic Force Command). the reason being the implications for our missile programme and the by product of a mother of all force multipliers.

In conclusion let me say we are well on our we have all these developments,infrastructure at Khushab etc we just to ride out a similar wave as in the eighties and use this time as before. As long as our western neighbour is in turmoil we are relatively well placed to achieve this.


I like your last paragraph but must say that till date we havent been able to contain the blowback effect of turmoil in our western neighbuor. If we can find a way to do that it would be great.

#7
IbnAbdullah

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Salaam

Thank you everyone for the replies.

It is even more then MAD scenario. A report said that if war happens and it moves nuclear then the whole world will not survive...


Are you referring to the one where it is hypothesised that if Pakistan nukes India - India would nuke china as well, and China would nuke it’s enemies and so on and so forth?

I read a book on this subject - and it stated that, in case of Nuclear exchange between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, the Soviets were going to nuke all the cities with populations above 500,000, which included cities in Pakistan. So that after the war, whatever is left of the world, the countries that didn’t take part in the war are not able to dominate the world. That was based on the USSR’s doctrine in 1984 or something, Pakistan was mentioned by name in the book.
'Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad' - Ancient Greek Proverb

#8
IbnAbdullah

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Salaam


I think we have achieved MAD otherwise Indians would have never toned down their language against Pakistan.


I don’t think that is necessarily true - I mean the deduction. Take for instance, the case of North Korea and the US; NK hasn’t achieved MAD or anything close, but they are capable of (or might be) able to reach a city or so with one of their devises and that is sufficient to keep the Americans from attacking them - unless things went really bad.

I am saying that Pakistan has not achieved MAD in relation to India, rather the line of reasoning you’ve used is something I think could be viewed differently.

By 2019 Pakistan will have fully deployed thermo-nuclear strategic deterent, based upon a triad ie all three strategic force commands will have been fully formed and matured. The doctrine of use has been thoroughly been wargamed, so the boffins have already worked out what is required to remove the adversery from the face of the earth.

(I know that is a terrible thing to say. But these weapons aren't toys, but assets that will ensure that if the fatherland does not survive. Neither will its attacker.)


Rafi sahib, do you mean H-bombs would have been developed, tested, produced and deployed by 2019?

Is this mature deterrent to be taken in context of India OR any possible future threat?

Also we are very close to realising the space dream RSSS and PAKSAT-IR in effect our first spy satellite and communications platform, the latter will enable us to have thousands of secure telephone lins and data-uplink for the forces. Succesors to the first spy SAT will hopefully have space based SAR capability which is part of the JV signed with our Chinese friends regarding development of AWACS and other radars.

Also the SLV is in a very advanced stage, with first launch on the horizon, but some international forces are putting huge pressure on the new government, giving it all sorts of carrots to indefinatly postpone this programme. (They are doing the same regarrding the reactor research and the developed of Navy Strategic Force Command). the reason being the implications for our missile programme and the by product of a mother of all force multipliers.

In conclusion let me say we are well on our we have all these developments,infrastructure at Khushab etc we just to ride out a similar wave as in the eighties and use this time as before. As long as our western neighbour is in turmoil we are relatively well placed to achieve this.


Does our civilian government have the power (note power not authority) to postpone our military developments e.g. SLV etc? I take it that you consider the current situation a sort of a blessing in disguise (provided things don’t go really bad - like US invades us or something along similar lines).

Also, when you refer to Navy Strategic Force Command - do you mean the second strike capability? Our Sub-Launched nuclear capability at the moment is quiet limited to the range of our cruise missiles. I heard Pakistan might be working (in the long term) on developing a nuclear power plant for submarines. Now that would really enhance our capabilities.
'Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad' - Ancient Greek Proverb

#9
Zarrar

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What about Anti Satellite weapons ?? Lasers i suppose ?

India has a very effective array of Satellites functional at the moment, has there been any development on that front ??

Research on Lasers are being carried out im sure, but any deployable or near deployable weapon on the horizon ?? (like atleast disabling or damaging a Satellite's optronics by a high powered beam) ??

#10
IbnAbdullah

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Salaam

What about Anti Satellite weapons ?? Lasers i suppose ?

India has a very effective array of Satellites functional at the moment, has there been any development on that front ??

Research on Lasers are being carried out im sure, but any deployable or near deployable weapon on the horizon ?? (like atleast disabling or damaging a Satellite's optronics by a high powered beam) ??


I think using nuclear tipped missiles could do the trick but I doubt we'd be able to use anything like that in a war with India (unless it's the last one) and I doubt we have something prepared for that kind of stuff.

The fact is that we have more pressing concerns and limited resources therefore we have to prioritise. I don't think ASAT weapons are going to be very high on that list.

I think China tested one recently, but I do not think it is something we might be able to get our hands on.
'Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad' - Ancient Greek Proverb

#11
wasimr

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@Rafi
I was of the opinion that Paksat-1R is schedule to replace Paksat-1 in 2010. Is there any change in the plan to launch Paksat-1R sooner than 2010?

#12
jawad

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Salaam

There was talk relating to nuclear threshold in the ‘Pak-Afghanistan’ thread. It was suggested that Pakistan and India may use nuclear bombs to contaminate and lay-waste the food producing regions of each other, in case there is a nuclear exchange, to maximize the damage.

My understanding was that the fall-out from nuclear weapons is deadly to human life only for about 2-4 weeks {for the most elements, [Iodine-131 (?)]}, and after a period of couple of months at most (for majority of the area) farming can be done. So how can the strategy suggested be of much use?

Another thing is that one of the reasons was that Pakistan does not posses sufficient nuclear weapons to level the better part of India and thus would resort to the aforementioned strategy. I thought we had sufficient weapons to ensure that India does not get up anytime soon. Do we not have sufficient weapons to do that? If not yet, how much longer before we are able to achieve a MAD situation with India (assuming India has the capability to completely destroy us)?


A useful rule-of-thumb is the "rule of sevens". This rule states that for every seven-fold increase in time following a fission detonation (starting at or after 1 hour), the radiation intensity decreases by a factor of 10. Thus after 7 hours, the residual fission radioactivity declines 90%, to one-tenth its level of 1 hour. After 7*7 hours (49 hours, approx. 2 days), the level drops again by 90%. After 7*2 days (2 weeks) it drops a further 90%; and so on for 14 weeks. The rule is accurate to 25% for the first two weeks, and is accurate to a factor of two for the first six months. After 6 months, the rate of decline becomes much more rapid. The rule of sevens corresponds to an approximate t^-1.2 scaling relationship
http://nuclearweapon...wfaq/Nfaq5.html
All wars of our age have become total wars... It would be dangerous to plan for less, and our plans should include the nuclear deterrent. Z.A.Bhutto

#13
Rafi

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Ok gentlemen I will try to answer as much as is possible, by reffering to thermo nuclear I'm talking about strategic weapons, if you want H-bombs - city killers. And the detterent has an indian strategic orientation no doubt but I repeat the detterence is purely devensive to ensure the survival of Pakistan, ie if we are to go down, we will take our attackers with us. no more, no less. Against all threats to the previous statement
Take what you want from that statement.

Although the civilian government does not manage any of our strategic programmes directly, they have influence in funding, which if cut can stunt the growth of these programmes. The international community because of WOT cannot afford to put the screws on at the moment. Similar to the Eighties in that fact.

By simply setting up a NSFC your intentions for a second strike capacity are flag-poled, there are alot of things going on, remember the test fire of Babur we caught the whole world with their trousers down, hopefully we can do that again.
No Veitcong ever called me nigger -
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#14
Rafi

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@Rafi
I was of the opinion that Paksat-1R is schedule to replace Paksat-1 in 2010. Is there any change in the plan to launch Paksat-1R sooner than 2010?


The programme is on its way, but like any project can be delayed etc, PAKSAT-IR will be different in the sense it will be to designed to our specifications it will be the first but definatly would not be the last. :)
No Veitcong ever called me nigger -
Mohammed Ali

#15
FaisalK

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Rafi...will Pakistan have multiple space-ports...for example have a couple of exclusively civilian & commercial purposes while one for classified military projects? It would help clear clogs and make Pakistan attractive for private companies to launch their satellites?

Regards;


#16
IbnAbdullah

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yes thats what i am saying
For weapons with yields of 100 kt or less, the fireball does not rise abve the lowest portion of Earth's atmosphere . so all of this fallout will be brought to the ground by weather processes . if the weapon is in megaton range, the fireball rises so high that it enters the stratosphere( ie just the troposphere/lowest portion of Earth's atmosphere ). The stratosphere is dry, and no weather processes exist there to bring fallout down quickly. few small fallout particles might descend over a period of months but this long-delayed fallout woll loose most of its hazard by the time it comes down. As yields increase above 100 kt, more and more of the total fallout is injected into the stratosphere and this is one of the reasons why most of the Mt got replaced


link to post

Jawad sahib, thank you for clarifying, but could you also clarify the highlighted part.

I understood from your post that for Mt + weapons the fallout rises above the layer of the atmosphere where most of the weather process occurs and thus the fallout usually would come after much time, and by then most of the hazard would have been lost. With sub-Mt (and 100 Kt +) weapons the fallout goes into the atmospheric layer where it can be carried around the globe (I’m assuming that is what makes it more hazardous).

However, at the end you said that this is (one of) the reason why Mt weapons were replaced - why would a country want to use weapons that may bring fallout to it’s own country instead of keeping it close to area where the bomb was used OR if the fallout spreads out then it should come so late that its ‘hazard-ness’ has been reduced significantly. I mean to say if Mt+ weapons or sub 100 Kt weapons are less hazardous interms of fallout reaching further away from the target, then why would countries faze out Mt+ weapons in favour of 100 Kt weapons?

Please do forgive my ignorance.
'Those whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad' - Ancient Greek Proverb

#17
Rafi

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Rafi...will Pakistan have multiple space-ports...for example have a couple of exclusively civilian & commercial purposes while one for classified military projects? It would help clear clogs and make Pakistan attractive for private companies to launch their satellites?


Faisal bro, the space program as it matures will divurge and you will see development of commercial satellites for communication, internet & broadcasting, and a classified part which will be more murky & mysterious (like our nuke program, with IAEA safeguarded reactors and the weapon programme) You have to realise with PAKSAT-IR our netcentric capability will recieve a huge strid. It will have circuits for thousands of encrypted telephone lines, and allow a military based intranet system, which allow for national command nodes, to give higher command authorities much information and allow setting up of tri-service based operational centres.

As for the earth observation satellite, I know that the top brass are very imterested in synthetic aperture radar, which the next models of RSSS will employ ie we will have exact locations for the enemy in all weather conditions, even heavy cloud cover.

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#18
syed_yusuf

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I learned somewhere that the spaces for new satellites are getting far and few. Do we have a spot or an orbit reserved to park these satellites?

#19
Naveed

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For all PDF members ....A must read report:

download link:

http://www.esnips.co...-Nuclear-Future

NA

#20
pshamim

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I have been told by some very reliable sources in Pakistan Army that the current Government on the orders of Zardari has cut funding for the Missile development . If true, then Zardari is clearly working with US and India.

Please confirm if you have heard such news as well.
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